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West Pacific/2015/10W/Archive/16
Public advisory TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 16 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 6:00 AM JST MON JUL 06 2015 ...LINFA MORE INTENSE BUT LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 12:00 PM JST...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 119.4E CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NW OF LAOAG CITY, PHILIPPINES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 KT...60 MPH...95 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...N AT 7 KT...8 MPH...13 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK --------------------------------------------- At 12:00 pm JST, the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was situated near 19.1N 119.4E, about 100 miles (160 km) northwest of Laoag City, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 993 millibars (hPa; 29.33 inHg), and the cyclone was moving north at 7 knots (8 mph, 13 km/h). Linfa is expected to continue on a general northward track and move ashore Taiwan within 48 hours, where tropical storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will be possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------------- Next complete advisory at 6:00 pm JST. $$ Forecaster TAWX14 Discussion TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 12:00 PM JST MON JUL 06 2015 Linfa is not looking healthy. The low-level circulation has become fully exposed to view since the previous advisory, although a recent convective near the center may act to temporarily change that. Although satellite intensity estimates barely support a tropical storm, with T1.5/25kt from JTWC, T2.5/35kt from SAB, and T2.7/37kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, a timely ASCAT pass around 2z indicated numerous 45kt wind barbs in the southeastern quadrant. Given the documented low bias of the instrument, Linfa's initial intensity has once again been raised to 50kt. Linfa has begun its slow northward motion this afternoon toward a weakness between a mid-level ridge across the West Pacific and an upper-level trough across northeastern China. Although the trajectory of Linfa may change erratically with the cyclone situated within a col region, the general northward motion is expected to continue through 48 hours. This should bring the tropical storm ashore in Taiwan. After day 2, the shallowness of Linfa, the potential for interaction with Chan-hom, and the continued presence of the upper-level trough/low across northeastern China should all direct it on a north-northwestward track into the mainland. There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for this solution, but the forecast remains one of low confidence due to the potential for a tropical-cyclone-to-tropical-cyclone interaction. Maps from UW-CIMSS indicate that Linfa is undergoing a high 20 to 30 knots of wind shear. This shear is forecast to continue for another 36 to 48 hours, and the potential for Linfa to intensify substantially does not appear as high as before; in fact, it would not be at all surprising if the cyclone actually weakened additionally. However, the GFS indicates the potential for anticyclonic flow to become established a short time before Linfa moves into Taiwan in approximately 48 hours, so slight intensification is possible then. The updated forecast is similar to the previous one. INIT 06/0300Z 19.1N 119.4E 50 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 19.9N 119.5E 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 20.5N 119.7E 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 21.3N 120.1E 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 22.2N 120.9E 50 KT 60 MPH...APPROACHING TAIWAN 72H 09/0000Z 23.9N 119.6E 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND MAINLAND CHINA 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster TAWX14